Cognitive bias bingo ... eyes down!

The extent of cognitive bias will surprise you

Move on. Nothing to see here.....It's just the way our brains are wired.

What? you're about to tell me that my brain is not the logical, consistent, reliable super-computer stuffed full with raw processing power and driven by hyper fast processing skills finely honed by nature over centuries? Err... no, not exactly.

There are some "glitches" in the matrix - less systematic errors (like bad coding) but inbuilt functionality that sways the cognitive processing routines to produce output errors. So we can't always simply trust our own cognitive skills (the functions your brain uses to think, make decisions, pay attention, process information, and remember things). Our brains have to process multiple thousands of decisions every day - from simple to complex - with exceptional speed - we are wired to protect the brain from overload..

There are many analogies for how the human Brian approaches thinking. All refer to two elements (coined systems 1 & 2 by Daniel Kahneman* inThinking, Fast and Slow).

System 1 does almost all of our decision-making thinking. It is the workhorse that we have come to depend upon. It's fast, automatic, effortless, happens subconsciously without control. It's intuitive and based on existing knowledge and past experience and we automatically rely on it in our day to day decision making. It's the brains default option given that the overwhelming volume of decisions are quite adequately carried out by system 1. Therefore it's the more powerful way of thinking about and arriving at a decision.

System 2 is slower, deliberate and conscious, requires effort, a controlled mental process, employing rational thinking. Deployed consciously, with self-awareness or control. It's logical and skeptical and deliberately seeks new/missing information to make logical and balanced decisions. It is not always (and often not) needed but it can arrive at a different decision to system 1.

So we have two ways of thinking. Our decisions may not always be rational.

In business there are some ingrained myths that fast-thinking entrepreneurs are able to manage businesses and take fast decisions using gut-feel and business acumen. They rely on their system 1 thinking but in doing so can draw on a wealth of existing data and knowledge and past experience. They are applauded. We admire them. Maybe rightly so because, if successful, they have been able to balance the two systems and are aware of their vulnerabilities to cognitive bias. But they also work this way on the basis that they will get some calls wrong.

Likewise at the other end of the spectrum, there are individuals who are known for being paralysed by analysis and cannot draw a conclusion or make a decision because of continually going round the analysis-loop to refine the data - to make a perfect decision. They are generally locked in the back room to use their overly active system 2 thinking. Should we pity them? No, they play a key support role in countering others biases. Just don't burden them with the responsibility of making decisions.

We recognise both end of the spectrum.

Clearly we need to deploy both systems in our decision making. Our brains are wired this way to take fast and less important decisions (the vast majority) using system 1 thinking. for more difficult or important decisions we need to consciously deploy system 2 thinking processes. BUT... and here's the issue - System 1 dominates. It is the default and often takes a number of shortcuts to arrive at a decision.

The shortcuts are called heuristics. We sometimes refer to them as a gut feeling, guestimate, common sense, or intuition (i.e. we use knowledge and experience immediately at hand rather than go do the research, or analyse the data). The side-effect of short cut thinking (heuristics) is that we all suffer from cognitive bias. A cognitive bias refers to a systematic deviation from rationality in judgment, whereby inferences may be drawn in an illogical fashion.

What can we do about it? Beware of system 1 thinking for important or complex decisions and therefore of the biases that may come into play when using system 2. Your own biases but also those of the people around you. Channel your inner Spock to check the cold hard logic to ensure that your conclusions are not the product of an in-built bias. Become more self aware of your own or others common biases. It's easier to see them in others but believe they don't apply to you (see Fundamental Attribution Error below). Don't be upset or offended if your own biases are pointed out to you - it's natural and we all benefit and labour under the way that our brains work.

I will take a look at the more common cognitive biases in some more detail in future posts. If you look at the common ones some are instantly recognisable in ourselves and in others. Some can be used by you and some against you. Welcome to cognitive bias bingo!

Cognitive Bias can take many forms

*I am not a psychologist and this post merely scratches the surface of the subject. I recommend that you read Daniel's book which is a must-read in my opinion if you want to understand the thinking process of the human brain. Whilst I wrote this blog Daniel Kahneman passed away on 27th March. RIP.